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Who Should Read This
Anyone who:
- Who’s ever been cornered by a manager asking, “So, exactly when will this Q4 feature set be done?”
- Living with giant backlogs, fake certainty, and a lingering suspicion that all those date forecasts are, as the author nicely puts it, “hooey.”
Influenced Mental Models
- Probabilistic Forecasting
- Work Breakdown Structure (WBS)
- Component Teams
- Feature Teams
- Deterministic Planning
- Monte Carlo Forecasting
- Three Date Estimates
- Roadmap
- Feature Sets
- Finish Before Starting
Resonating Quotes
Quote
“If I can’t predict what I will eat for lunch six months in advance—and my lunch decisions only involve me—how can you possibly predict what you will deliver in the future? You can’t know what. All you know is that you will deliver something.”
—Johanna Rothman via How to Predict When the Team Will Complete a Specific Backlog Item, Part 1
A valid point in opposition to Deterministic Planning.
Quote
“All these possible answers are hooey. No one has any freaking idea.”
—Johanna Rothman via How to Predict When the Team Will Complete a Specific Backlog Item, Part 1
In response to trying to predict when something will be done.
To Do
- Influenced Mental Models
- Resonating Quotes