Distinctions
| Dimension | Forecast | Commitment |
|---|
| Core Nature | A probabilistic prediction about what is likely to happen | A declaration of intent to pursue an outcome |
| Type of Statement | Descriptive (what the system will probably produce) | Normative (what the team will try to achieve) |
| Source | Historical data, models, and evidence | Team agreement, prioritization, and responsibility |
| Uncertainty | Explicit and expected | Acknowledged but not the defining feature |
| Purpose | Inform planning and expectation setting | Create focus and accountability |
| What It Represents | System behavior | Human intention |
| Typical Expression | Range, probability, or likelihood | Goal, promise, or declared target |
| Example | “There is an 85% chance we complete 18–22 items.” | “We commit to achieving the sprint goal.” |
| When It Changes | Updated when new information appears | Revisited only when priorities change |
| Evaluation | Accuracy of prediction | Integrity of effort and prioritization |
| Failure Mode | Treated as a promise | Treated as a guarantee |
Boundary
Forecasts express probability about system behavior; commitments express intent about human behavior.
Systems
Relationships
Perspectives